Released yesterday, December 29th, 2011, here is the 2012 Economic and Housing Outlook from NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The full 15 slide PowerPoint looks at economic indicators such as existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts, GDP, payroll jobs and more.
The Summary Forecast Table is also pasted below.
Link to the full PDF can be found here.
- While 95 percent of buyers in 2010 chose fixed rate mortgages, only 92 percent chose fixed-rate financing in 2011.
- Of those with an adjustable product, a fixed- then adjustable product was about twice as common.
- Repeat buyers were somewhat more likely to choose adjustable rate financing than first-time buyers.
- For more information: http://www.realtor.org/topics/homebuyers_sellers_profile
Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights jobless claims.
- After a significant plunge in new jobless claims last week, this week’s data shows a 15,000 increase in new claims. However, the data is based on estimates for a large number of states. A more accurate reading will be available after the holidays.
- That still leaves new claims at 381,000, which is below the 400,000 level that generally suggests widening of the labor force.
- The four-week average, a less volatile series, still shows a significant decline of 5,750, to a 375,000 level, so far the best reading.
- This is the fourth straight decrease for the four-week average and the eighth decrease in the last nine weeks.
- Continuing claims rose 34,000 to 3.601 million, with the four-week average still down 39,000 to 3.599 million. This is also the lowest figure since jobless claims started showing a recovery.
- A substantial majority of REALTORS® (91 percent) own their primary residence.
- The percentage of REALTORS® who own their home differs slightly by age. Members 39 years old and younger had a lower level of homeownership at 78 percent, compared with a homeownership rate of more than 94 percent for REALTORS® aged 60 or older.
- In addition to their primary residences, REALTORS® often own other properties. Sixteen percent reported that they owned one or more vacation homes, while 44 percent noted that they owned other residential properties for investment.
- Ten percent own at least one commercial property.
- For more information: http://www.realtor.org/topics/member_profile
- REALTORS’® firms provide them with additional resources, including websites and relocation departments.
- Nine in ten REALTORS® reported that their firms have a web presence, and 2 percent indicated that there is not currently a presence, but a site is planned.
- Almost 40 percent of REALTOR® firms had a relocation department or business development department responsible for relocation activities.
- REALTORS® who have been in the field for longer were more likely to be aware of the presence of a relocation department in their firm.
- For more information: http://www.realtor.org/topics/member_profile
- While most home buyers continue to see their home purchase not only as a place to live, but also as a good financial investment, a smaller share of buyers expressed this view than in the past.
- Seventy-eight percent of buyers feel that their home purchase is a good financial investment, while only 8 percent felt it was not a good investment.
- In the 2010 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 85 percent reported that a home was a good financial investment and in 2009, 87 percent of buyers held that view.
- In the past, repeat buyers tended to have more favorable views of the investment value of homes, but in 2011 first-time buyers tended to have the more positive outlook.
- Despite the somewhat diminished outlook among some buyers, seven in ten believe that a home purchase is as good or better of an investment as stocks.
- For more information: http://www.realtor.org/topics/homebuyers_sellers_profile
- Although social media has rapidly penetrated market communications, the use of social media has not changed much between the 2010 and 2011 NAR Member Profiles.
- Almost half of members are using social media while an additional 9 percent plan to in the future.
- In the 2010 Profile, only 35 percent of REALTORS® used social networking websites, and 14 percent planned to do so in the future.
- The use of social networking sites is more widespread among younger REALTORS®, with over 8 out of 10 of those aged 29 or younger using such sites.
- For more information: http://www.realtor.org/topics/member_profile
Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights the Case-Shiller price index and consumer confidence.
- The October 2011 Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell by 1.2 percent from the previous month and was down 3.4 percent from one year earlier.
- The month-to-month change in home prices ranged from 0.3 percent in Phoenix to -5.0 percent in Atlanta. On a year-to-year basis, the Washington and Detroit metro areas showed gains of 1.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.
- Overall the index for October suggests that home prices remain under pressure. Other statistics tracking the housing market show more consistent signs of stability or improvement, however. New home sales are off their recent lows, rising for the past three months and single family housing starts, although low, were up slightly during the past two months. Existing home sales rose 4 percent in November.
- Also, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose for the second consecutive month, beating the consensus forecast. The index, at 64.5 in December, was up from a recent low of just 40.9 in October. Consumers were also more confident about the future. The index tracking consumer expectations shot up to 76.4 compared to a recent low of 50 in October. Overall, it appears that consumer confidence is rebounding, yet another positive sign for the economy and the housing market as we enter 2012.
- The typical member has worked at their firm for five years.
- Broker-owners who do not sell have typically been at their firm the longest—a median of 21 years.
- Sales agents have typically been at their firm the shortest time—a median of four years.
- The number of years a member has been at their firm has remained constant at five years since 2009. In 2008, the typical tenure at a firm was four years.
- For more information, on the Member Profile, please visit http://www.realtor.org/topics/member_profile
Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights new home sales and personal income.
