Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the service sector.

  • Today’s data on the service sector is a bit disappointing.  Therefore, the continuing economic expansion and fall in unemployment rate should be viewed with some caution.
  • A survey of supply management personnel in the service sector showed a loss in momentum.  The latest read of 52 is the lowest in nearly two years.  But since it is above 50, it still implies more business activity though the expansion pace has slowed.
  • Today’s data notches down the GDP growth expectation to about 2.0 percent in the current quarter.  This pace of economic growth would be considered subpar, even though the growth is sufficient to add to job creation to the tune of 1.5 to 2.0 million per year.
  • A total of 2.5 net new jobs have been added since the low point of early 2009.  However, home sales have not yet improved despite more jobs.  Pent-up demand for housing is clearly developing.  The question is how long do we need to wait for that demand to  reach the market?
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