Retail Sales

Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses retail sales.

• In today’s data, the retail sales figure for November rose by only 0.2% from October and is up 6.7% from the same month a year ago.  The year-over-year rate is a decline from last month’s 7.5% 12-month growth rate.
• While the headline figure slumped on slower automobile sales as well as sales at food and beverage stores, part of the decline was from falling sales at gasoline stations, which reflect falling fuel prices, a good thing for consumers and businesses that involve trucking or driving like REALTORS®.
• Despite the surge in Black Friday sales, month-to-month sales rose only 0.3% at merchandise stores and growth was strong, though slightly lower than October at non-store retailers (e.g. mail order and on-line sellers).
• Today’s data releases were relatively vexing for the economy.  Despite recent improvements in consumer confidence and anecdotal evidence of stronger Black Friday sales, headline November sales were weaker than expected.  While retail sales don’t directly impact the housing industry, they reflect consumer confidence as well as potential movements in hiring.  Consequently, stronger retail sales are important for housing since they are a reflection of a stronger economy. Because of the respectable retail sales activity, the GDP growth forecast is raised modestly for the fourth quarter to 2.9 percent.