Home Price Update

Home prices keep going up, according to the latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.  Prices are up 3.7 percent from one year ago to May.  The Mountain states covering Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico showed the strongest gains with a 6.3 percent annual gain.  Read the FHFA press release here >

The following table shows home price trends according to various separate measurements using different methodologies.  Though the magnitudes differ, one consistent theme is that home prices have been rising in recent months.  No doubt there are markets with continued falling prices, but now there are more markets with rising prices, which thereby raises the national price index.  Another point to note is that all price measurements are lagging indicators.  What is happening now in late July is likely to even further strengthen home values because of tightening inventory conditions.  Qualitative information, such as foot traffic at open houses, the number of phone inquiries, and the degree of seriousness of buyers are all rising according to REALTOR® member survey of market conditions.  Though some homebuyers are now entering the market a step late they are still nonetheless essentially buying at record high affordability conditions.

Of the below price indices, Case-Shiller and FHFA are useful to assess broad market price changes as they utilize the repeat price methodology.  But they are not all that timely.  NAR and HUD data are good to know for brokers and homebuilders as they show direct business revenue and the economic impact of a home sale.  However, for REALTOR® members and serious consumers, the data to monitor closely is LPS and CoreLogic because lender business decisions are made from these valuation models.  There are numerous other price information data out there on the web and they generate some silly fun, though they should not be taken seriously since business decision makers do not take them seriously.

Now, one big drawback of rising prices aside from buyers who wanted to pick something up at the absolute bottom is that appraisals may not be catching up in a timely fashion.  Thus, appraisal related delays could be with us for the near term.  Those REALTOR® members with access to NAR’s RPR should print out localized information to share with appraisers and lenders.  As always any special non-tangible information about the property should also be shared with appraisers and lenders.