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A more granular look at home prices

  • Previously, we looked at the FHFA and Case-Shiller release focusing on national data trends. Today, we’ll dig a bit deeper to look at more local data at the regional, state, and city or MSA level.
  • Monthly FHFA releases data at the Census division level and quarterly it releases state and metro area data. Case-Shiller offers data on 20-cities monthly. Both of these sources confirm the trend seen in NAR measures.
  • At the regional level: the most robust home price gains from a year ago were in the West. NAR reported price change of 15.5% in December and 14.6% in January. According to FHFA year over year prices in December 2013 rose 14.9 percent in the Pacific division which includes Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California and 12.6 percent in the Mountain division which includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.
  • Likewise, NAR data showed the smallest price gains from a year ago in the Northeast (3.5% for the year ending in December and 6.6% for the year ending in January), and FHFA showed a similar pattern. Prices rose 2.7 percent in New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut) and 2.1 percent in the Middle Atlantic states (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) from December one year ago.
  • State by state data, pictured below, shows more detail. Some states in the South had very robust growth: Florida, Georgia, and Texas, but the region as a whole had more moderate growth because of states with more modest home price growth or mild declines such as West Virginia, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
  • Among cities, Case-Shiller reported the biggest year over year gains in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Each had more than 20% year over year gains. The smallest gains in Case Shiller’s cities were Cleveland at 4.5 percent and New York at 6.3 percent. While the cities covered differ, NAR saw similar trends with the largest home price gains in the 4th quarter out West in cities such as Sacramento and Las Vegas. NAR also saw substantial home price gains in Atlanta, a city that showed an 18.1 percent year over year gain by Case Shiller’s measure. In the quarterly release, FHFA produced a similar list of the top-20 metro areas. Again, the specific areas covered are different, but many of the top metro areas on FHFA’s list are out West including Modesto (CA), Stockton-Lodi (CA), and Vallejo-Fairfield (CA) as the top 3.

Danielle Hale, Director of Housing Statistics

As a Research Economist at NAR, Danielle studies tax issues, the wealth impact of home ownership, and different measures of home prices.

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Comments
  1. I believe we will see a lot more of this. With pent up demand continuing to build over the last couple of years and supply below normal levels, the housing deficit will be drastic. The price increases might even be bigger than in 04-08.

    I’ve got my eyes on reverse mortgages.

  2. Please be aware that not every state enjoys the increases equally from boarder to boarder.
    as an example, Western Washington is a highly populated higher income area thn is central and Eastern Washington, which is less populated and has a lower income level. In central and Eastern Washington, the increase in real estate values will be less than the more populated west side. It would do you and others well to drill down further in each state as you more accurate numbers of values

  3. Charles Beckman

    How can we forget that home prices are driven by employment in the short term. Gen X and Gen Y are not able to enter the ownership market at levels seen in previous generations. More are renting or living at home. Combined with the new “restrictions” of Dodd/Frank when it comes to a lower percentage of income to qualify for a loan, more documentation (especially for the self-employed should give pause to the market in the west until 2015 or 2016. Also, on January 2, 2013 congress extended the Emergency Economic Recovery Act until December 31, 2013. The three bills that have been filled in the house have been tossed deeply into the House Ways and Means Committee with govtrack giving all three of them less then 10% chance of passage. So, in a shot-sale, mortgage debt will be added IN FULL as income for taxation. Receive $300,000 less for your home then what you owe you add that full amount on to your income tax for payment at the end of 2014. Please, someone, stop throwing caution to the wind.