REALTORS® Price Expectations by State in Next 12 Months Based on April 2014 REALTOR® Survey

REALTORS® generally expect prices to increase over the next 12 months with a median expected price increase of 4 percent, according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index [1]. Slower sales due to tight credit conditions, declining affordability due to the recent price growth amid modest income gains, and fewer distressed sales likely account for the modest expectations.

REALTORS® in most states expect prices to increase in the range of 3% to 5%. However, in states where inventory is very low and where cash sales are strong (e.g. FL), the expected price growth is in the range of 5% to 7%. In states that have modest income growth, the expected price growth is less than 3 percent (blue).

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[1] The median expected price change is the value such that 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change above this value and 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change below this value. A median expected price change is computed for each state based on the respondents for that state. The graph shows the range of these state median expected price change.

Comments
  1. I hope this is true. I worry about too much optimism being past on to sellers. There has been a flood of overpriced listings lately.

  2. In my market, Rhode Island, I think people have been very careful about pricing their homes for market this year. The market has responded well to this and inventory for these well priced homes is moving quickly, particularly in Newport, RI… one of the strongest markets in the state right now. In Rhode Island, where we had a large housing bubble, people already ‘did’ the overpriced thing… Sellers know that this no longer flies, are just as eager as their listing agents to price right and move on quickly.

  3. Here in Central FL, we still have a shortage of inventory. However, there have been a lot of over-priced expired listings in the past couple of months. It appears many sellers may have higher expectations than what the market can actually bear. Homes priced up to $300K are still selling if they are priced within market value range. Higher-end homes are still not as popular but if priced at or below market value, they have a good possibility of attracting buyers which is good for sellers who must sell.

  4. Mark E. Rowley

    The state of Nevada in the last legislature (77th) passed SB321, The Homeowners Bill of Rights….The enactment of the bill on October 1st of 2013′ was to help streamline the processes that are necessary for our market place to fully recover….The result has been that the market conditions remain the same and the pace of the necessary processes for recovery have slowed……According to Mr. Marcus Conklin, the now departed Associate Director at the Lied School for Real Estate Studies at UNLV, three fiscal quarters ago Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas) had 40K vacant houses….Eight weeks ago at a real estate symposium Mr. Brian Gordon, Principle at Applied Analysis, a highly reguarded economic research firm here in Clark County was quoted as saying 48K residents are living in their homes not paying their mortgages…..Source the Mortgage Bankers Association….According to CoreLogic’s latest Negative Equity Report just released for the first quarter of 2014′, the Great State of Nevada leads the nation in Negative Equity Mortgages at 29.3%…..According to the Clark County Recorders Office the month of May produced the lowest amount of Notice of Trustee Sales in over four years….Since the passage of the bill, Chapter 7 Bankruptcy filings in Clark County have fallen 19%…Source PACER…..So a current “naturally” constrained supply of housing in Clark County is questionable at best….Our current supply is at 2.7 months, source GLVAR May 2014’….Only in a truly functioning market place could we tell what the true value of our housing stock really is……When asked at the April US Senate Subcommittee meeting of Housing, Transportation and Community Development by Nevada US Senator Dean Heller about a housig recovery for the State of Nevada, Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen may have stated it best…..”Nevada is in for a long slog”……