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REALTORS® Price Expectations by State in Next 12 Months, Based on May 2014 REALTOR® Survey

REALTORS® generally expect home prices to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the next 12 months, according to the May 2014 REALTORS® Confidence Index. The median expected price increase is 4.0 percent (same as in Feb-April 2014) [1].

Expected price movements depend on local conditions relating to housing demand and supply, demographics, and job growth. The difficulty in accessing mortgage financing and modest expectations about overall economic and job prospects are factors underpinning the modest price expectation. The expected price growth was highest (red) in states with low inventory levels, strong cash sales, and strong growth sectors (e.g., technology, oil).

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[1] The median expected price change is the value such that 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change above this value and 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change below this value. A median expected price change is computed for each state based on the respondents for that state. The graph shows the range of these state median expected price change. To increase sample size, the data is averaged from the last three survey months.

Comments
  1. Michael H

    Funny not even one predict that prices will decline… anyone think rates will hold at sub-4% ? Q.E. by the Fed will increase ? Continue to decrease and taper… Honestly no body sees the rapid drop in rates and BILLIONS in MBS as the plug that stopped values from continuing to decrease? I vote …FLAT if not a 1-3% decline.

  2. Prices are reusing because they are so far below replacement value there is only one way to go. Once they start to get back over replacement then I can see decreases. Some markets did get nutty and mostly from funds going in and buying a ridiculously low basis that they can sit and pay the unreal maintenance that a single family home incurs when converted to a rental.

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