August 2014 EHS Data Vs. The Ten-Year August Average

Every month NAR produces existing home sales, median sales prices and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month one year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The highlights below show what the current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten August months, and how that might compare to the “ten-year August average”, which is an average of the data from the past ten Augusts.

  • Total homes sold in the United States for August 2014 is slightly below the ten year average. A similar trend is seen in the Northeast and the West. The Midwest and the South are the only two regions to show current sales above the ten-year August average.
  • Regionally, since the low point of sales in 2010, there had been three consecutive year-over-year gains, but that changed this year with sales declining in August.
  • The median home price in August 2014 is higher than the ten-year August average median price for the U.S. and all four regions. The West leads all regions with the highest home prices.
  • The median price year-over-year percentage change shows prices having a positive change for the last three years after struggling the previous six years. The West has predominately guided the direction of home prices for the U.S. and all regions over the ten-year cycle. For the U.S. and the four regions the best price percentage increase took place in 2005 except for the South, which had its best gains in 2013. The biggest decline took place in 2009 for all U.S regions except the West, which had the largest drop in 2008 when home values declined more than 20%. This August the Midwest is the only region to have a negative year-over-year price percentage change.
  • Inventory of homes for sale for the U.S. is currently lower than the ten-year August average. In 2004, the U.S. had the fastest pace of homes sold while in 2010 the U.S. saw the slowest pace relative to inventory, with the months supply at 11.5. The ten-year August average months supply is 7.4. In August 2014 the figure is 5.5 months supply, close but slightly below a healthy level of homes on the market relative to demand.

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View the full PPT slidedeck: August 2014 EHS Vs Ten Year Average