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Commercial Lending Conditions Ease in 2014

According to the first Urban Land Institute/EY Real Estate Consensus Forecast of 2014, commercial real estate fundamentals are projected to continue improving. Vacancy rates are expected to decline for office, industrial and retail properties, while availability for apartments is estimated to rise. Commercial rents are poised to rise for the four core property types in 2014 in the 1.9 percent to 3.8 percent. In 2016, rent growth is projected to range from 2.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

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As a significant portion of the data underpinning ULY/EY’s forecast is aggregated at the top end of transactions—above $2.5 million—it points to a brighter commercial environment, especially for top-tier markets. With 90 percent of commercial REALTORS® managing transactions valued at or below $5 million, and mainly located in secondary and tertiary markets, the 2014 Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey shines the spotlight on a significant segment of the economy which tends to be somewhat obscured.

Five years after the Great Recession, lending conditions in REALTOR® markets show signs of sustainable recovery. With commercial real estate fundamentals and investment prices on a solid upward trend, lending conditions eased as financing sources broadened in 2014.

For more details on lending conditions in REALTORS® markets, visit: http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/commercial-real-estate-lending-survey-2014-10-08.pdf

George Ratiu, Director, Quantitative and Commercial Research

George Ratiu, Research Economist, writes regular economic columns and conducts research in the areas of commercial real estate, international investments, mortgage performance and foreclosures. He produces NAR’s Commercial Real Estate Outlook and manages quantitative surveys, including the Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey.

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