November 2014 EHS Data Vs. The Ten-Year Average

Every month NAR produces existing home sales, median sales prices, and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month, and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten November months, and how that might compare to the “ten year November average” which is an average of the data from the past ten November months.

  • The total number of homes sold in the US for November 2014 is lower the ten year November average. In recent months, the 2014 sales figure has been within 5 percent of or even higher than the 10-year average figure.  November’s low figure relative to the 10-year average may be partially due to the rush of closings in November 2009, as the first time home buyer’s tax credit was set to expire. Regionally, only the South had higher than average sales while the Northeast, Midwest, and West show current sales below the ten year November average.
  • Comparing November of 2004 to November of 2014 fewer homes were sold in 2014 in all regions, with the Northeast undergoing the biggest decline of 40.4%. The South, still leading all regions in home sales had the smallest drop in sales at 19.9% over the ten year period.    Population growth may help explain some of the South’s resilience.  From 2005 to 2013, data show that the population there grew by 13% whereas the nation as a whole grew by less than 10 percent and the Northeast and Midwest grew by less than 6% each.
  • The median home price this November is higher than the ten year November average median price for the US and all regions except the Northeast which was modestly close. The median price of a home in 2014 is up approximately 3% higher in the US, Midwest, and South compared to 2004. Only the Northeast had a drop in price of 2% while the West remained flat.
  • The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices began to fall in 2006, but did not fall considerably in most areas until around 2008. Still, the graph shows the major turn-around in growth rates from nearly double-digit gains in 2005 to a slight loss in 2006.  Home prices made their biggest jump from 2011 to 2012 except for the Northeast which saw prices slip slightly in 2012.  The West had the largest gain up to 22% price growth in 2012, which is also the largest November year over year gain observed in this 10-year period in any region. This November the Midwest has the highest year over year price percentage change over the US and the other three regions.  While prices are still growing, the rate of price growth in the West has slowed considerably since last year.
  • There are currently fewer homes available for sale in the US this November than the ten year November average.  In 2004 the US had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to the inventory while in 2008 the US had the slowest pace taking 11 months to sell the supply of homes on the market. The ten year November average months supply is 7 and this November we are at 5.1 months supply. The ten year average month supply for November for condos is 7.9 while single family is 6.9. The condo market is currently performing better than single family, having only at 4.6 months supply while single family is hovering around 5.2.

AverageRegionsPriceMedian Price