February 2015 EHS Vs Ten Year February Average

Every month NAR produces existing home sales, median sales prices and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten February months and how that might compare to the “ten year February average” which is an average of the data from the past ten February months.

• The median home price this February is higher than the ten year February average median price for the US and all regions except the Northeast which was down slightly and the Midwest which was level to the average. The median price of a home in February of 2015 was higher only in the US and South the compared to 2005 while the other regions experienced declines in price. The Northeast had the biggest drop in prices at 7% while the West and the Midwest had minor declines.
• Comparing February of 2005 to February of 2015 fewer homes were sold in 2015 in the US and all regions, with the Northeast undergoing the biggest decline of 48.7%. The South, still leading all regions in home sales had the smallest drop in sales at 19.2% over the ten year period. Families on average are now staying in their home for ten years which is a sizable time period shift, from seven which could contribute to less homes sold.
• The total number of homes sold in the US for February 2015 is lower than the ten year February average. Regionally, only the South had higher than average home sales while the Northeast, Midwest, and West show current home sales below the ten year February average. While the South was above the average by more than 6%, all other regions were within 5% except the Northeast which was actually more than 17% lower than the February average.
• The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices began to fall in 2007, but did not fall considerably in most areas until around 2009. Home prices began to stabilize in 2012, only the South and West regions showed slight price gains. The West had the largest gain in price growth of 22% in 2013, while the Northeast had the smallest gain at 5%.  This February the Midwest had the highest year over year price percentage change over the US and the other three regions.
• There are currently fewer homes available for sale in the US this February than the ten year February average. In 2005 the US had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to the inventory while during the bubble in 2008 the US had the slowest pace taking 9.8 months to sell the supply of homes on the market. Relative to all supply, the condo market had the biggest imbalance in 2009 when it would have taken 14 months to sell all available inventory at the prevailing sales pace.
• The ten year February average national months supply is 6.7 and this February we are at 4.6 months supply. The ten year average month supply for February for condos is 8 and the single family supply is 6.5.