REALTORS® Broadly Positive About the Six-Month Outlook

In June 2015, REALTORS® were by and large “strongly confident” about the outlook for the next six months, although confidence appears to have decreased slightly relative to May, according to the June 2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report. [1]

In the single-family market, the REALTORS® Confidence Index Six-Month Outlook eased to 72 (74 in May 2015; 63 in June 2014). The index for townhomes slid to 53 (55 in May 2015; 46 in June 2014). The index for condominiums dipped to 49 after four months at being 50 or higher (50 in May 2015; 41 in June 2014). An index greater than 50 indicates that the number of respondents with a “strong” outlook outnumbered those with a “weak” outlook.

Sustained job creation at a pace of 220 thousand jobs per month in 2015, the reduction in the FHA’s annual mortgage insurance premium rates which took effect January 2015,[2] and the acceptance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac of three percent down-payment loans since early this year appear to be facilitating improved market confidence. However, REALTOR® respondents expressed concern that the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) regulations, which take effect October 3, 2015, may lead to delayed closings.[3]

6 month


[1] Respondents were asked “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?”

[2] U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Mortgagee Letter 2015-01. http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=15-01ml.pdf

[3] TRID prescribes simplified disclosure forms that the lender needs to deliver to the loan applicant after a loan application is received (Loan Estimate) and before a loan is consummated (Disclosure Form) within prescribed business days and waiting periods. The objective is to help consumers understand the key features, costs, and risks of the mortgage loan for which they are applying. See the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s guidelines at http://www.consumerfinance.gov/regulatory-implementation/tila-respa/

Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research

Jed Smith is Managing Director, Quantitative Research with the National Association of Realtors®. He has worked on real estate issues for the past 20 years, providing input on a variety of housing, commercial real estate, tax, and planning issues. Recently he has been involved in several international studies.

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