rci outlook

REALTORS® Outlook Over The Next Six Months: Positive But More Moderate

As of July REALTORS® were by and large “strongly confident” about the outlook over the next six months although confidence eased somewhat compared to June: July 2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report.[1] In the single-family markets, the REALTORS® Confidence Index Six-Month Outlook moderated to 68 after six months at over 70 (72 in June 2015; 60 in July 2014). The index for townhomes slid to 51 after six months at over 50 (53 in June 2015; 45 in July 2014). The index for condominiums dipped to 47 (49 in June 2015; 40 in July 2014). An index greater than 50 indicates that the number of respondents with a “strong” outlook outnumbered those with a “weak” outlook.

REALTOR® respondents expressed concern that the steep pace of price appreciation is eroding affordability. Respondents also expressed concern about the possible adverse effect on market transactions and closing when the new disclosure regulations under TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) take effect on October 3, 2015.[2]

rci outlook


[1] Respondents were asked “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?”

[2] TRID prescribes simplified disclosure forms that the lender needs to deliver to the loan applicant after a loan application is received (Loan Estimate) and before a loan is consummated (Disclosure Form) within prescribed business days and waiting periods. The objective is to help consumers understand the key features, costs, and risks of the mortgage loan for which they are applying. See the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s guidelines at http://www.consumerfinance.gov/regulatory-implementation/tila-respa/

Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research

Jed Smith is Managing Director, Quantitative Research with the National Association of Realtors®. He has worked on real estate issues for the past 20 years, providing input on a variety of housing, commercial real estate, tax, and planning issues. Recently he has been involved in several international studies.

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