REALTORS® Are Generally Optimistic Over the Next Six Months, Based on December 2015-February 2016 Surveys

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) asks members to assess their outlook over the next six months for the single-family homes, townhomes, and condominium markets. NAR compiles the responses into the REALTORS® Confidence Index—Six-Month Outlook across property types.

Local market conditions vary, but with the spring and summer months coming, REALTORS® remained by and large confident about the outlook over the next six months, according to the February 2016 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report.[1] The following maps show the REALTORS® Confidence Index—Six-Month Outlook across property types by state.[2]

Compared to current conditions in the single-family homes market, all states, except for Delaware, Vermont, and West Virginia, were expected to have broadly “strong” to “very strong” markets in the next six months, partly because of the seasonal uptick in spring and summer. In the townhomes market, the outlook varies from “weak” to “very strong” across the states, with “very strong” market outlooks in Colorado and Nebraska. In the condominium market, the outlook is also mixed across the states, with the District of Columbia having the strongest outlook, the only area where the index registered “very strong.” In spite of some comments expressing concern about the low oil prices, the respondents in oil-producing states such as Texas, Colorado, and Montana broadly had “strong” to “very strong” outlook about conditions in the next six months. In Oklahoma, respondents had a “strong” outlook on the single-family homes market, but had “weak” outlooks on the townhomes and condominium markets.

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[1] Respondents were asked “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?”

[2] The market outlook for each state is based on data for the last three months to increase the observations for each state. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations. Respondents rated conditions or expectations as “Strong (100),” “Moderate (50),” and “Weak (0).” The responses are compiled into a diffusion index. Index values 25 and lower are considered “very weak,” values greater than 25 to 49 are considered “weak,” a value of 50 is considered “moderate,” values greater than 50 to 75 are considered “strong,” and values greater than 76 are considered “very strong.”