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REALTORS®’ Expected Home Price Change in 2017 By State

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”

Among REALTORS® who responded to the January 2017 survey, the median expected home price change in the next 12 months was 3.5 percent, according to the January 2016 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report, a monthly survey of REALTORS® about their sales activity and local market conditions.[1] This means that half of respondents expect home prices to increase by less than 3.5 percent over the next 12 months while half of respondents expect home prices to increase by more than 3.5 percent in that time.[2]

The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level.[3] The states of Washington, Oregon, and Colorado have the highest median expected price growth at above four to five percent. The oil-producing states of Alaska, North Dakota, and West Virginia have the lowest median expected price change; respondents expect a slight decline in Alaska home prices and growth of less than two percent in North Dakota and West Virginia home prices in the next 12 months.

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Looking at the values over time in selected states, the median expected price change appears to be increasing again from what was expected in the middle of 2016, indicating that respondents expect demand to remain strong. In more than half of states, expected price change exceeds the price growth that was expected at the end of January 2016, even as home prices continue to rise.

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[1] The author thanks Danielle Hale, Managing Director, Housing Research; Meredith Dunn, Research Communications Manager; and Amanda Riggs, Research Survey Analyst for their comments. Any errors are attributable to the author.

[2] The median expected price change is a measure that represents the middle value of the distribution of responses. The median, as a measure of central tendency, is less susceptible to extreme values than the mean ( average).

[3] To increase the number of observations for each state, the analysis is based on a 3-month rolling period. The states shown in these charts are those with approximately 150 observations.