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Will Falling Auto Sales Lead to Falling Home Sales?

Americans have been cutting back on vehicle purchases in 2017 after having reached a 17.8 million annualized pace in the fourth quarter of last year. The purchases were running 4% and 6% lower in first and second quarter of 2017, respectively. No great cheer in July either with 16.7 million auto sales. The declines are only moderate but nonetheless signals that the peak sales are over.

Knowing that auto sales are typically the second most expensive purchase after a home purchase for most Americans, are home sales also doomed for a decline? So far in 2017, existing home sales have been modestly higher by 3% while sales of newly constructed homes are about 10% higher. But what about in the past cycles?

 

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Lawrence Yun, PhD., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at NAR. He directs research activity for the association and regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1 million REALTOR® members.

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