- While home prices have grown steadily this spring, they remain low relative to the market’s peak in 2006.
- Through March, the Case-Shiller price index for the 20 major metro areas was up 10.9% as compared to the same period in 2012 and each of the 20 markets in the index was up over this period.
- However, all but one of the 20 markets were below their levels from March of 2006 and all but three were still down by double-digit figures.
- Dallas was the sole market that was stronger over this 6-year period by 0.6%, but the Texas markets largely avoided the loose lending and heady price growth from 2003 through 2006.
- More than half of the markets in the index, 14, were down by 20% or more compared to March of 2006 and Las Vegas was down in excess of 53%.
- Markets in California and the sand states of Florida, Nevada and Arizona were down by the largest amounts despite frenzied investor purchases.
- Last month, we reported that the Case-Shiller Price Index was likely to break a double-digit pace in the next month, and Tuesday’s data confirms that prediction. All three Case-Shiller price indexes rose by double-digits from one year ago. The 10- and 20-City indexes increased by 10.3 and 10.9 percent, respectively, in March while the national index rose 10.2 percent from the first quarter of 2012.
- NAR reports the median price of all existing homes that have sold in the given time period while Case-Shiller’s weighted repeat-sales index only compares price changes among homes for which there is a previous sale, examining the difference in price for property-pairs only. Also, because Case-Shiller data relies on public records, the data reported for March 2013 is actually a moving average of sales from January, February, and March 2013. Because home sales among higher priced properties have been growing more than among lower price tiers and because the Case-Shiller report factors in older data in this market of rapid price growth the NAR median is outpacing the Case-Shiller index.
- While the NAR median price does not measure change in price for the same properties, it can be computed much more quickly than a weighted repeat sales index, thus information is available sooner, and as can be seen in the chart above comparing several price measures, the trends in the data tend to be similar, so the NAR median price is a valuable early indicator of other housing price data.
- NAR’s median home price began showing consistent double-digit gains in December 2012 while another series, CoreLogic’s House Price Index, showed double-digit gains as early as February.
- By city, Case-Shiller data showed double-digit gains for home prices in 12 of 20 cities and showed gains exceeding 20 percent in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco. Only New York saw price gains less than 4 percent.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the Case-Shiller price index.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s second update discusses the Case-Shiller price index.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s second update discusses FHFA and Case-Shiller home prices.
