economic forecasts Archive

Housing Market Forecast

The housing market is beginning to roar back. Existing home sales have risen for two straight months after suffering declines since the summer months of last year. The pending contracts also show robust gains, implying home sales will further...

Economic Forecast

The economy shrank big time in the first quarter.  However, there were many transitory temporary factors that passed through, which will begin to reverse in the upcoming quarters.  No recession is on the horizon.  The economic expansion, however, will...

GDP Forecast

With the exception of the strong housing market recovery, the broad U.S. economy continues to underperform.  This week data on the GDP growth of 1.8 percent in the first quarter was uninspiring.  The long-term historical average GDP growth is...

Latest GDP Surprise

Third quarter economic activity grew at 2.0 percent, which is decent but still subpar compared to the historical norm.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) generally grows by three percent on average and should be growing closer to four to five...

Blue Chip Forecast on Home Prices

I participate in the Blue Chip Consensus forecast with around 50 other economists representing organizations such as FedEx, Dupont, Ford Motors, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Wells Fargo, Bank of Tokyo, Swiss Re, and UCLA. This forecast is often...