Data based on May’s existing home sales release, covering April figures. For more information, check out the “supplemental market data” file on the EHS data page.
- Sales growth was largest among homes in above-median-priced categories in April, and more than 10% of homes sold had a sales price over $500,000.
- In spite of the price variation by region, when summed to the regional level the median sales price for all regions of the US except the West falls into the $100,000 to $250,000 price range. The West is slightly outside of this range and the Northeast is near the edge.
- The median price is the point at which the middle-priced home sold. By definition, half of homes in an area sold at a higher price and half of homes sold at a lower price than the median.
- Sales were up from a year ago in the median-price category and all higher price tiers in all regions. Sales were only lower in the lowest price category in the West, South, and Northeast—most likely a result of limited inventory in this price range.
- Notably, in most regions, sales growth was highest in the higher price tiers. In the Northeast, sales growth was strongest in the $1 million plus category while in the Midwest and West sales growth was strongest in the $750,000 to $1 million price tier. Sales in the South showed the most strength in the $500,000 to $750,000 category and were more than 30 percent higher than a year ago in all above-median price tiers which partly explains the strong price growth in the median in that region.
- Sales in the lowest price tier began to show less growth and even decline in some areas in 2012. Unsurprisingly, this was the same period when we saw the biggest tapering off in reports of distressed sales in our survey of practitioners.
- Strength in the upper price tiers has brought the share of homes-priced greater than $500,000 among those sold to over 10 percent in April. As inventory is more plentiful in these price tiers, construction seems limited, and distressed sales are anticipated to continue to drop, expect the share of higher priced homes among those sold to remain above the 10 percent level for the duration of the summer selling season, and possibly into the off-season.
- While home prices have grown steadily this spring, they remain low relative to the market’s peak in 2006.
- Through March, the Case-Shiller price index for the 20 major metro areas was up 10.9% as compared to the same period in 2012 and each of the 20 markets in the index was up over this period.
- However, all but one of the 20 markets were below their levels from March of 2006 and all but three were still down by double-digit figures.
- Dallas was the sole market that was stronger over this 6-year period by 0.6%, but the Texas markets largely avoided the loose lending and heady price growth from 2003 through 2006.
- More than half of the markets in the index, 14, were down by 20% or more compared to March of 2006 and Las Vegas was down in excess of 53%.
- Markets in California and the sand states of Florida, Nevada and Arizona were down by the largest amounts despite frenzied investor purchases.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses Core Logic price data.
- Last month, we reported that the Case-Shiller Price Index was likely to break a double-digit pace in the next month, and Tuesday’s data confirms that prediction. All three Case-Shiller price indexes rose by double-digits from one year ago. The 10- and 20-City indexes increased by 10.3 and 10.9 percent, respectively, in March while the national index rose 10.2 percent from the first quarter of 2012.
- NAR reports the median price of all existing homes that have sold in the given time period while Case-Shiller’s weighted repeat-sales index only compares price changes among homes for which there is a previous sale, examining the difference in price for property-pairs only. Also, because Case-Shiller data relies on public records, the data reported for March 2013 is actually a moving average of sales from January, February, and March 2013. Because home sales among higher priced properties have been growing more than among lower price tiers and because the Case-Shiller report factors in older data in this market of rapid price growth the NAR median is outpacing the Case-Shiller index.
- While the NAR median price does not measure change in price for the same properties, it can be computed much more quickly than a weighted repeat sales index, thus information is available sooner, and as can be seen in the chart above comparing several price measures, the trends in the data tend to be similar, so the NAR median price is a valuable early indicator of other housing price data.
- NAR’s median home price began showing consistent double-digit gains in December 2012 while another series, CoreLogic’s House Price Index, showed double-digit gains as early as February.
- By city, Case-Shiller data showed double-digit gains for home prices in 12 of 20 cities and showed gains exceeding 20 percent in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco. Only New York saw price gains less than 4 percent.
- FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) price data shows that home prices across the United States rose 6.7 percent from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. In 41 states and the District of Columbia prices were higher than the fourth quarter of 2012, and from one year ago the District and all states except Connecticut and West Virginia showed higher prices. In Connecticut and West Virginia, prices were weaker by less than one percent.
- Price gains were largest in the West. Nevada, Arizona, California, and Idaho each saw gains exceeding 15 percent from one year ago. The map above shows the breakout of annual gains for each state.
- Nationally, prices rose 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter. Note that this is seasonally adjusted, but not annualized, meaning that if prices continue to gain at this pace, it would imply an 8 percent gain for home prices nationally in the course of a year.
- FHFA uses a weighted repeat sales index that compares the prices of properties that involve a conforming conventional mortgage purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Thus, the FHFA index is based on a broad geographical sample of home transactions, though it misses out on transactions involving cash, jumbo or FHA/VA loans. In spite of this limitation, its price trend is usually similar to that of other price measures.
